And So It Begins
1/3/12

As many people know, early season tennis betting can be dangerous. Off season work (or lack thereof) can really change a players performance, injuries both known and unknown can recover or worsen, and most obvious some players may not give 100% using lesser tournaments add "warm ups" to the Australian Open.  However, there are opportunities... But tread lightly.

Brisbane

Philipp Petzschner (+155) v. Jurgen Melzer (-175)

I was surprised to learn that Jurgen Melzer is 30 years old.  He has had a satisfying career amassing nearly 7mm in earnings with 3 total titles.  Contrast that with 27 year-old Petzschner who had earned about half as much (2.8mm) with one title win.  The two share a very similar W-L record from last year.  In style of play Petzschner holds a stronger serve while Melzer sports better return stats.  The weight that tips the scale for me is the head to head record, 2-0 in favor of Petzy.  Lump in the fact that Melzer should be holding something back in advance of the AO and I think you gotta take the German.

Petzschner (+155) - $280 to win $434

Chennai

Sam Querrey (-266) v. Victor Hanescu (+231)

In my opening article I noted that I interested in watching Querrey potentially rebound from an injurious season in 2011.  His first challenge comes against an aging Hanescu, like Querrey ranked 90+ to start 2012.  The two share remarkably similar stats from last year, both on serve and return.  How do I know Querrey us back on the up and up?  Simply put, I don't.  I'm completely taking a shot here.  Querrey is young, has had sufficient time to rehab his elbow and even at 75% he wins this match.  He has 6 total titles at age 24 compared to Hanescu's 1 in the twilight of his career.  Take the big American at perhaps what will be the best price he will get all season.. If he is healthy.

Querrey (-266) - $1290 to win $460

2012 ATP World Tour Is Here!                            12/30/11

The time of year draws near where everyone takes stock of the past twelve months, reflects on success and failures, makes promises of betterment in the year to come, and then proceeds to drink themselves silly.  Inevitable personal failures aside, this time of year is also an exciting time for sports fans, most prominently GAMBLERS! It is the apex of the NFL post season race, Bowl season for NCAAF, hot stove season for MLB followers and this year the beginning of a shortened NBA season.  However, today I am excited about something entirely different and oft overlooked in the sports gambling community, something I get exited about every year, something I enjoy  equally as a sports fanatic and gambler.  I an speaking of course about the 2012 ATP World Tour.

In a bit of resolving of my own, I have declared to myself that I will handicap daily with write-ups for each play, track my win/loss and profit/loss and that I will attend as many   events this year (in addition to the US Open which is local to me), and mostly that I will enjoy the unmatched drama that will inevitably unfold on courts across the globe on virtually a daily basis.

So without further ado I present my 2012 ATP Outlook:

Top 10
    Using the ATP  rankings to stratify  players, despite a firm belief that the rankings are seriously flawed particularly in relation to handicapping needs, I believe that most of the top 10 will repeat their performance of 2011, with a few notable exceptions.  

• Rafael Nadal will face increasing difficulty stemming primarily from injuries.  It is no secret that Nadal's style of play is unsustainable.  Between his knees, his shoulder and his injured ego from 2011, I feel that Nadal will suffer further setbacks in 2012.  I expect more tactical (opposed to 100% every point style) play, perhaps more selective play in terms of tournaments entered and overall a more vulnerable version of the Spaniard as we have ever seen.
• Andy Murray will be a potent performer in select spots.  If you have ever followed any of my tennis handicapping you probably noticed that I am not a huge Murray fan.  In fact its a toss up between Murray and Blake for who I like least.  However, in doing my prep work for this season I noticed that Great Britain's only hope greatly improved on his greatest criticism from seasons past, his serve.  While he is flush with weaknesses and I'm not at all prepared to pick him to win his first Slam, I do think he can build on successes from last year more than others in the top 10.

Players To Watch

Obviously it is difficult (foolish?) to pick players you expect to experience pops or drops before the season even starts but foot-in-mouth be damned.  Here goes.

• I expect Andy Roddick to have yet another disappointing season.  This guy can't seem to get ahead.  He still sports a dominating service game, improved backhand and probably the best tiebreak game on tour.  However his pay is stagnant, he is constantly frustrated with his inability to (re) breakthrough, and it seems to me at this point he is simply mailing it in.
• I LOVE Marin Cilic this year.  After suffering what can fairly be called a setback from his breakout season, Cilic has quietly settled in right behind the big dogs in the rankings.  Last season he consistently beat lesser ranked talent and constantly progressed deep into tournaments.  I don't know if he will start to upset faves but I expect to see this young player to constantly compete at a high level.
• Two players I am excited to watch develop are Earnst Gulbis and Sam Querry, for different reasons.  Querry could be due for a serious rebound season after falling into relative obscurity due to injury, resulting in elbow surgery last summer.  Gulbis it seems to me is a decent return game (and maybe 2nd serve improvement) away from winning some serious matches.  His young age coupled with the coaching changed he made after Wimbledon (Canas) bode well for the Latvian.

One thing is certain this season and that is we will be surprised, we will be  disappointed, we will sit at the edge of our seats.  Enjoy and good luck!

© 2011 Art Vandelay Industries, All Rights Reserved.  Writing not to be reproduced without express written consent of author.

Tennis returns to Atlanta, GA after a 9-year hiatus and some big name American’s vie for the elusive title.  In fact many big name players from all over the world are competing here, perhaps because of it’s novelty and perhaps because of the tournament’s proximity, both temporally and spatially, to the upcoming US Open.  

Donald Young (+120) vs. Dudi Sela (-160)

Young American Donald Young, ranked 105, looks to advance the American defense at Atlanta when he takes on similarly ranked Israeli Dudi Sela (ranked 102).  Both of these younger players does their best work on hard court though Young has yet to translate his Challenger success on the surface to the World Tour.

As previously mentioned, Donald Young has had a lot of trouble translating Challenger success.  And for a much touted young American (aren’t they all?) his record and recent play leaves a lot to be desired.  Early in the season he tried a lot of qualies and did make it to the second round of the main draw at the Australian Open.  Since Houston, where he exited after an opening round straight set loss, he has attempted to consolidate his season by dropping to Challenger tournaments.  Much like a thoroughbred who runs in a lot of claimers in prep for an allowance race Young certainly saw some success again at the Challenger level, making 5 of 8 semifinals. 

Dudi Sela has had a better season than his current ranking suggests.  He has won 12/15 matches at the World Tour level, including a big recent win over Andy Roddick in a Wimbledon warm-up tournament.   He is winning around 74% of service games played, bolstered by a 50% second serve points won (compare to Young’s 41%), and wins 22% of return games played.  Though he does double fault at a high rate he also has seen a larger amount of break points than his return games won percentage would indicate, seeing 137 over the 287 return games played YTD. 

These two have met once before in New Haven where Sela got it done in straight sets (2008).  Though their rankings indicate similar skill Sela has proven to be a class above the hyped American.  Until Young shows the ability to win on this surface at this level it looks like the only thing he has going is just that, hype.

Selection – Sela (-160)

Taylor Dent (+220) vs. James Blake (-260)

Two failed American athletes face off in the opening round at Atlanta and one thing is for certain; an American will advance to the second round.  If you have followed along, I despise James Blake and take nearly every opportunity to fade the man, albeit with varied success. 

Dent is actually ranked above Blake (94 vs. 115) and is a year older at a spry 29.  Dent is a fast court player with a big serve and forehand.  He has varied success this year advancing through qulies and into the second round at Wimbledon yet losing to low ranked players and Challenger level opponents on occasion.

James Blake really needs to think about retiring.  Watching his most recent loss against Hasse in the opening round of Wimbledon was like watching “The Baumer” in “The Royal Tenenbaums.”  Don’t get me wrong, the guy has 10 hard court tittles and was a legitimate threat with his long flat forehand, but he has really deteriorated since those days. 

While one player looks to maintain a career of mediocrity and the other looks to salvage a once respectable and vibrant career, hampered more by mental demons than physical, I will willingly take the dog at this price.

Selection – Dent (+220)

Wimbledon Day 4 will end with 32 players left in contention.  As I write this, there have been very few upsets, though there have been very many close calls.  Most men have played at least one extra set.  In parsing the Day 4 matchups I was particularly attentative to find potential upsets as to date I have largely been picking/expecting faves to win out. 

Martin Fischer (+116) vs. Thomaz Bellucci (-127)

Two young guns face off to see who will reach the third round of a Grand Slam here at Wimbledon on Day 4.  Martin Fisher is ranked at a career high of 164 and Thomaz Bellucci is likewise ranked at a career high, 24.  They represent Austria and Brazil respectively.

Fischer is relatively untested at the World Tour level and indeed his career record is 0-6.  He is primarilly a hard court player, though that reputation was built on the ITF circuit.  Here at Wimbledon he has impressed with his trip through qualies and straight set win over similarly ranked Go Soeda.  His service game is not particularly strong but he can return well. 

Bellucci sits at his career high ranking thanks to a strong extended clay season, including several runs deep into tournaments (i.e. Roland Garros) and a title at Santiago.  The question becomes can he translate his successes on dirt to grass or hard.  His record on grass (1-1) is insignificant, however his performance on hard (14-23) is indicative of trouble.  Two rays of light are his performance at Miami this year (R16 exit) and his straight set win over Ricardo Mello in the opening round here at Wimbledon. 

Despite having trouble defeating anything but clay players on other surfaces, it seems to me that Bellucci is a solid enough top level player to beat someone as inexperianced as Fischer solely on that measure, experience.   In this coinflip situation, I’ll take my chances with the Brazillian.

Selection – Bellucci (-127)

Fabio Fognini (-125) vs. Michael Russell (-105)

Italian Fabio Fognini, largely regarded as a clay specialist, upset the 8 seed Fernando Verdasco in the opening round.  Now he must face older (32) American Michael Russel.  Russel does his best work on hard court, where he has made quite a career for himself mopping up the competition at the Challenger level.  He has 11 titles at that level on hard court.

Fognini is young at age 23, and he has been ranked as high as 54 in his career, now he sits at 80.  Proficiant on dirt, this Itallian is downright bad on hard (10-24) and not much better on grass (2-6).  However, the upset win over Verdasco in the first round needs to be explained before he is dismissed summarilly.  The numbers show that while Fognini served well, Verdasco handed him the match, with nearly double the Italians unforced errors and failing to generate more than one break opportunity (non-converted).

I will be honest I was impressed with Mike Russell play against John Isner earlier this year at Miami, he put up a good fight against the big server.  He also played quite well against his first round opponent here at Wimbledon, Pere Riba.  In that match he won handilly serving and returning well.  The numbers would be much better if Russell had converted more than 2 of the 12 breakers he looked at.

Russell has the advantage on a non-clay surface and the opening round matches point to his being in better form as well.  Fognini was handed the match by a faltering Verdasco and Russell really destroyed Riba though he only converted 2/12 break points.  Stick with the American.

 Selection – Russell (-105)

I’ve been away from the game for some time thanks to some steady work, and a terrible start to pre-Roland Garos clay season.  However, getting back into a routine has coincided nicely with Wimbledon and has convinced me to pound out my thoughts on some tennis matches in the hopes it will get me back on track where I wager.  So without furhter ado, here are some matchups I like at Wimbledon, day three.

Nikolay Davydenko (-190) vs. Daniel Brands (+145)

In the second round russian Davydenko, who took 5 sets to beat South African Kevin Anderson, must face young german Daniel Brands who cruised to victory in straight sets agains Igor Andreev.

In his opening round match Davydenko took his time figuring out Kevin Anderson, especially his large serve.  Anderson was up two sets and a break before Davydenko got aggressive with the return and drew the tall South African into longer baseline rallies where the advantage inevitably shifts to the Russian.  Though it is well below his season average of 43% return points won he managed to clear 30% against the strong serving Anderson, who had 37 aces.

Brands on the otherhand really dominated a struggling Andreev.  Despite only hitting 65% of his first serve the German managed 21 aces.  Brands returned better than he has been for the year winning 33% of points versus 32%.  The 32% for the year is deciving as well, as he has only won 13% of return games YTD, meaning he has trouble stringing together several return point wins in a row.  Brands only has 5 career matches on grass at any level of play.

After getting the bugs out against Anderson, Davydenko should be ready to roll through the early rounds until he meets a more formidable opponent.  He handled a better server than Brands, and Brands’ win over Andreev is diminished because of Andreev’s strugling on any suface other than clay and Brands’ lack of experience on grass.

Selection – Davydenko ML (-190) or minus games.

Brendan Evans (-106) vs. Albert Montanes (-102)

It baffles my mind to see how a seasoned veteran of over 10 years, with 4 titles, and a decent YTD win/loss record (19/14) can be an underdog against a young American upstart who beat his opening round opponent who is equally untested in straight sets.  However, that is the case here with Spaniard Montanes as he takes on American Brendan Evans, currently ranked 318.

Montanes has had a very decent year thus far with a title (on clay at Estoile) and big wins over players like Federer and Cilic.  He has won 51% of all points played breaking down to 62% of service points and 40% of return points.  In his opener, Montanes handled Paolo  Lorenzi beating him in straight sets with one tie-break set.  It appears that Montanes killed Lorenzi with consistancy hitting only 13 unforced errors and 54 winners. 

I didn’t watch the Evans match, and indeed I have never seen him play and perhaps that will be my downfall.  However the career stats and those from his opening round win over Jesse Huta Galung show that he may not be ready for serious World Tour play, let alone round two of a Grand Slam.  He is a consumate qualifier player who rarely makes it through and has a career 5/14 record at the top level.  He has recently pushed further in qualies and has been focusing his game on grass.  In his opening round win his stats were consistant but not impressive enough to warrant being a fave or even a close dog. 

Evans has done much here at Wimbledon to improve his ranking and I look forward to learning more about him, however a seasoned vet like 29 year old Spaniard Montanes should be able to dismiss the American with ease. 

Selection - Montanes (-102).

I really like a lot of dogs today in the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters out of Monte-Carlo.  And I think this makes sense as a lot of lines are set using early season hard court form with less regard for the individuals proficiency on clay.  Enjoy these early morning plays, and lets make some money.

Marin Cilic (-225) vs. Igor Andreev (+185) – 4/13/10 4:30AM EST

Marin Cilic, out of Slovenia is not nearly as proven on clay as he is on hard court.  His opponent, Russian Igor Andreev is a clay court specialist with 3 titles on the surface, all 3 accumulated in 2005.  These two have met 4 times and Cilic owns the head to head 3-1.  However, the 1 win that belongs to Andreev is the 1 meeting the two have on clay, at Gstaad in 2008. 

Marin Cilic has played well but inconsistently this year.  While he exploded early with two title wins in Chennai and Zagreb sandwiched around an impressive AO semi-final finish he has since lost to Melzer, and Garcia-Lopez.  At the World Tour level he is only 22-21 on clay though he was 11-6 in 2009.  Cilic also has 2 titles on clay at the Challenger level.  Last year after performing wonderfully through Zagreb, Cilic had back to back losses in the third rounds of the American Masters events (Indian Wells and Miami), and then busted out in the second round at Monte Carlo to 100+ ranked Fognini.  Eerily similar to the run up this year.

Igor Andreev really is a clay specialist with 3 titles on the surface in 2005 and a career 57.7% win rate.  Though he is 7-7 overall in 2010, he is 6-3 on dirt including a quarterfinal and semifinal finish in Buenos Aries and Costa do Sauipe respectively.  He elected to play the South American clay season this year instead of playing out the early hard court season as he did last year, with little success. 

Cilic has been a bit inconsistent this year, starting strong and tapering off much like he did last year before losing in the early rounds at Monte-Carlo.  Andreev is focusing his game more on his strength and thus is tuned to clay already this year.  As a heavy dog I like the guy who is trained on this surface. 

Selection – Andreev (+185)

Florent Serra (-225) vs. Stephane Robert (+185) – 4/13/10 5:30AM EST

These two Frenchmen meet a second time in their careers and it happens to be on clay again and within a week of the initial meeting.  That first meeting went in favor of Serra who went on to the semifinals at Casablanca.  Please see my previous write up for this match as most of it still applies with the addition of the following observations  (http://boner18.mysbrforum.com/blog/17179-casablanca-round-2-1-dog-1-fave.html).

As I mentioned above, Serra had a late push last week in Casablanca.  I think this sets him up for a let down loss early here at Monte Carlo. 

Robert took the first set from Serra at Casablanca and preceded to fall apart the rest of the match.  This is a guy who really picks his spot and if he can bring up his second serve points won and tighten his return game this is a good match.

This still looks like closer to a coin flip to me than the line would indicate.  I will take one more shot with Robert at this price before I have to go back to do a full workup on him again, a reevaluation.

Selection – Robert (+185) 

Have a pair of short faves in the afternoon tournament out of River Oaks Country Club in Houston, TX.  Since I hit the dog and lost the fave from the early matches adding these two as wins would be a pleasant pop for the roll.  Thanks for reading and good luck! 

Lleyton Hewitt (-165) vs. Juan Ignatio Chela (+145) – 4/9/10 Approx. 3PM EST

The Aussie battles back, both in the rankings and in his last match.  Coming back to the tour after a hip injury Hewitt looked like he was getting acclimated to the court or surface when he dropped a set to Devvarman but then promptly took the second set at love.  However, the third set didn’t fit into this analysis as Hewitt then required a tie-break to win in a match that lasted just under two hours.

Hewitt is a very proficient clay court player and he has a record of 88-40 with 3 titles on the surface at the World Tour level.  In fact the last title the Aussie won was here at Houston last year in 2009. 

Juan Ignatio Chela, the aging Argentine is a clay court specialist and former world number 15 who is struggling to find his place on tour in his old age and with many young South American clay players emerging as super-stars on the surface. He is only 4-4 on clay and 1-5 on hard court this season, though he owns an over 50% win rate on both surfaces for his career.  In his first round match Chela managed to defeat one of the young guns who threatens his place on dirt.  He beat Schwank in three sets posting both strong service stats and return stats.

The question with Hewitt is fitness, for if he were known to be even 90% he would be at least a -200 fave here.  It is worth the risk to take a highly superior played (when healthy) in this spot, looking to back a guy improving with every match played.

Selection – Hewitt (-165) 

Wayne Odesnick (-117) vs. Xavier Malisse (-103) – 4/9/10 Approx. 4:30PM EST

As SBR poster EaglesPhan36 puts it “I THINK I am on Odesnik to beat what could be a gassed Xavier Malisse after being on court for almost 2 hours, 40 minutes yesterday vs. Isner.” (http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-handicapping/319354-ep36s-tennis-talk-p15.html#post4004859).  I couldn’t agree more and am jumping on the bet as well.

Odesnick has a winning record on clay at the Challenger level (37-30) and at the World Tour level (11-7) so we know he can bring his game to the surface.  He has a well rounded game winning around 76% of service points played and 24% of return points played.  In the opening round he cruised over similarly ranked Kukushkin having a look at a whopping 16 break points.

Malisse is an aging Belgian who sports a 54% win rate on clay. As mentioned in the quote above he battled past first round opponent, American John Isner, in a marathon match that lasted nearly two and three-quarters hours.  The significance of this shouldn’t be soft peddled, especially given Isner’s complete lack of ability to win on dirt.  So far this year Malisse has played well for his ranking with his strength being on serve (81% of games won) and not on return (13% of games won).

Odesnick is a refreshing surprise, a clay proficient American, and I think he has the goods to beat a tired Malisse who labored to beat a guy with no clay form.

Selection – Odesnick (-117)

Won my single play at Houston early yesterday.  Going to pick a couple out of Casablanca.  I like a dog and a fave here, so hopefully at least the dog will cash.  Thanks for reading and good luck!

Lukasz Kubot (-132) vs. Potito Starace (+112) – 4/8/10 Approx. 8AM EST

Kubot sits at a career high ranking of 42.  Starace is well off his career high of 27, currently sitting at 73.  Both of these men are proven winners on clay, though Kubot’s proving ground has largely been the Challenger circuit. 

Starace, the third ranked Italian, is 88-77 on dirt in his career but is only 1-4 on the surface this season.  His losses this season have come against a range of competitors from upranked Ferrer to downranked Luczak and his sole win came against a seriously downranked Belarusian at the Davis Cup.  Starace has won 71% of service games YTD and only 18% of return games. 

Lukasz Kubot is the top ranked Pole and is just finding his game at the World Tour level.  He is 22-17 on clay at this level and perhaps more importantly 6-4 this year.  He had a decent South American clay season, especially in making a deep run to the finals at Costa do Sauipe where he lost to Ferrero.  He has amassed a win percentage of 76% and 30% in service games played and return games played respectively.  Though he faltered a little in the opening round here at Casablanca it is likely that he was just refinding his clay legs after playing on hard court at Miami. 

Kubot is coming up while Starace may be fading.  Both of these players are decent dirt players so the surface shouldn’t be a major issue.  The YTD stats and performance during the South American season points to a win by the Pole.

Selection – Kubot (-132) 

Florent Serra (+125) vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (-145) – 4/8/10 Approx. 10:45AM EST

These two players have strangely similar match records.  Both have a winning record and titles on clay at the Challenger level, Serra 66-41 (3 titles), and Garcia-Lopez 42-21 (1 title).  When you look to the World Tour records of these players, again on clay, the similarities continue, Serra with a win rate of 47% and a single title and, Garcia-Lopez with a win rate of 44.4% and a single title.

Serra stumbled a little in the opening round match against fellow Frenchman Stephane Robert dropping the first set.  It appears that he might have been getting accustomed to the surface though as he then proceeded to mop the floor with Robert winning the next two sets 6-1, 6-3.  He had a decent early hard court season and amassed some impressive stats like 79% of service games won, bolstered by 54% of 2^nd serve points won.  He also won 20% of all return games played.

Garcia-Lopez has not made the same strides in YTD stats as Serra.  He only wins 69% of service games played and 47% of 2^nd serve points.  Though he does win 3% more return games played for a total of 23%.  Garcia-Lopez also stayed on for the hard court tournaments and had recent success at Indian Wells where he made it to the fourth round by beating several upranked players, namely Marin Cilic. 

Both of these men are proficient on clay.  Serra has great YTD stats, particularly on serve.  I think this is more like a coin flip and an confident going with the dog.

Selection – Serra (+125) 

Only one play today out of the US Men’s Clay Court Championship at Houston, TX.  I wanted to make another play on the Kukushkin/Odesnik match but realized I was forcing it.  I will add it if the line moves in my favor (I like either player as a dog).  Good luck!

Dudi Sela (+200) vs. Horacio Zeballos (-240) – 3/8/10 1PM EST

Israeli Dudi Sela looks to improve his clay form but will have a hard time doing against a clay specialist like Argentine Horacio Zeballos.  Sela has less than 55 matches on dirt at all levels of play and except for the Futures level has a losing record.  Zeballos on the other hand is a clay court Challenger champion with a 53.4% win rate and 3 titles. 

Sela has had a good early third of the year, though all his success has been on hard court.  He has played three matches on clay and lost all three, only winning one set against Massu at the Davis Cup.  Last year he was 1-5 on the surface only beating a player named Jean-Rene Lisnard, ranked 220.  It appears that Sela’s already middle of the road return game seems to suffer more on clay, perhaps he is not accustomed to the specialized movement that is required by the surface.

I touted Zeballos as a clay court specialist when in reality he is a hard court specialist who is proficient in clay.  As so many hailing from South American countries he likely played most of his youth tennis on the surface but moved away from it as he progressed on the professional circuits. He went 80-45 on the surfaces at the Futures level (9-5 on hard), 62-54 on clay at the Challenger level (34-18 on hard) and 2-4 at the World Tour level (7-8 on hard).  This is Zeballos’ first year playing at the World Tour level on clay.  We know Zeballos can play on dirt but in addition he is in form right now.  He progressed to the third round at Miami, eventually eliminated by finalist Tomas Berdych.

One guy decidedly proficient on clay and the other is decidedly not.  I don’t think that some of Sela’s favorable YTD stats will translate to the dirt.  Additionally, Zeballos is nearer to his career high ranking of 41. 

Selection – Zeballos (-240)