Lots of great action this week (2/8/10 – 2/15/10) so lets get right down to it.

SAP Open – San Jose, California

Dudi Sela (-160) vs. Santiago Giraldo (+120) – 2/8/10 12:30PM EST

The top ranked Isreali, Sela at 46, takes on Columbian up an comer Santiago Giraldo who sits near his career high ranking of 93 (at 95). 

Santiago Giraldo surprised many people when he eliminated Tommy Robredo in the opening round of the AO.  Prior to ’10 Giraldo largely played in Challenger matches.  He favors hard court though he played most of his ITF Futures career on clay with a winning record. 

Sela has not done anything impressive to this point in ’10.  He lost early as a favorite in the AO to Sergeyev and was bounced quickly by Julien Benneteau in Brisbane.

Giraldo is on the improve and is young and dynamic.  Sela hasn’t shown anything special yet this season and is always capable of losing to a player he should outclass.  I like the dog again here.

Selection – Giraldo (+120)

Leonardo Mayer (+120) vs. Earnests Gulbis (-160) – 2/8/10 3^rd on Center Court, Approx. 3:30PM EST

Latvian Gulbis has been falling in the rankings since his career high of 38 in the Summer of ’08 and seeks to put a stop to the fall here in San Jose.  Argentine Mayer is near his career high ranking of 58, in search of his first title. 

Gulbis actually played well in Doha, beating Albert Montanes who found form therafter and Andreas Seppi before being shown the door by Federer in the quarterfinals.  Against Federer he stole a set despite double faulting 7 times and only winning 33% of second serve points. In the AO Gulbis lost a terrible opening round match to Juan Monaco. 

Mayer has also had a good start to the ’10 season.  He dutifully marched to the quarterfinal in Sydney and also lost in the first round of the AO. 

If Gulbis was completely on form he would be the pick here, but absent evidence that he is the match is more of a coin toss.  In such a scenario, I’ll go with the dog.

Selection – Mayer (+120)

Michael Russell (+150) vs. Mardy Fish (-200) – 2/9/10 Time TBA

American clay specialist Russell is ranked 74 and seeks to better that by beating the big serving Mardy Fish who was once ranked as high as 17 and currently sits at 58. 

Russell, who is 31, is questionably a world tour caliber player.  He blew through a Challenger tournament to start the year and stole a set from world number 5 in his opening round loss in the AO reflecting well on his ability.  However his career win loss on tour is 31/73, that is less than 30%!

Fish, who was once an American hope to break into the top 10 has had a respectable start to the year.  He was defeated twice by returning player Marcos Baghdatis, once in Brisbane and again in Sydney. Each of those matches Fish held his own, losing one 7-5, 7-5 and the other in a third set tie-break.

Mardy has his serve working, acing Baggy over 15 times in the three set match.  He has the experience, prefers the surface and is slightly more spry.  Gonna give this one to the Floridian.

Selection – Fish (-200)

Like I noted, a small spot play for the Santiago final.  Going with the experience here (3 titles to 1).  Good luck!

Movistar Open – Santiago, Chile

Thomaz Bellucci (+135) vs. Juan Monaco (-155) – 2/7/10 8PM EST

The first clay tournament winds to close in Santiago and two South American players face off.  Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci, ranked 35 meets Argentine Juan Monaco, ranked 29.  Surprisingly enough these two young (22 and 25) clay specialists have never met in ATP World Tour or Challenger play. 

Coming through to this final has been a battle for Bellucci who had to beat Gonzo and did so thanks to poor service from the Chilean.  Bellucci has dropped a set to almost every opponent in this tournament.  When his first serve is working (to the tune of 75% plus) he wins a lot more points, but at 70% or less he will drop games.

Monaco has seen little resistance thus far in Santiago.  He dropped a set to Luczak but other than that has won handily. His return game is very strong at times winning more points on return than his opponents win on serve. 

The experience and ability to neutralize Bellucci’s serve should be enough to get it done for the Argentine tonight in Santiago. 

Selection – Monaco (-155)

Three ATP 250’s draw to a close here in the first week of February.  I have regained some ground that I lost in the AO and am cruising along capping these tournaments.  A brief look forward shows we have the San Jose (ATP 250), Rotterdam (ATP 500), and Costa do Sauipe (ATP 250) next week.  The ATP 500 should be a great tournament and hopefully some of the strong upstarts from Zagreb and Johannesburg can carry forward some value there.  Keep your eyes peeled here for a spot play on the Santiago final, the semis are not settled as I write this up.  Thanks for reading and good luck!

South Africa Tennis Open – Johannesburg, South Africa

Feliciano Lopez (-260) vs. Stephane Robert (+220) – 2/7/10 Not Before 7:30AM EST

Up for grabs in the final at the South Africa Tennis Open in Johannesburg are 250 points and over $75k.  Spaniard Feliciano Lopez, ranked 39, looks to add a second career title and repair his once top 20 ranking.  Frenchman Stephane Robert seeks to definitively crack into the top 100 (currently ranked right at 100) and add a first career title at age 29.

Feliciano Lopez has had a see-sawing trip to the final here.  He dropped a set to qualifier Benjamin Balleret in the opening round, perhaps because he was only winning 69% of his service points.  In the second round he was taken to a tie-break in the second set by Blaz Kavic, and he only made his first serve at a rate of 51% and only won 19/35 points on his second serve. In the semifinals Lopez really consolidated his service game, or perhaps Monfils dropped the ball on return.  In that match Lopez, down a set in the second swiftly took the second at 6-1 and won convincingly in a tie-break.

Stephane Robert is really playing his best tennis ever.  He suffered a tough five set loss to on form Albert Montanes in the AO after eliminating Potito Starace in straight sets in the first round.  More impressive is Robert’s performance here in Johannesburg.  Though he also dropped the first set played here he has cruised thereafter.  He even crushed Spaniard David Ferrer, ranked 18.  A look at the numbers though shows that Ferrer really lost the match, Robert only won 60% of his points on serve and Ferrer opened the door by allowing Robert to win return points at 45%. 

Selection – Lopez Minus Games

PBZ Zagreb Indoors – Zagreb, Croatia

Marin Cilic (-760) vs. Michael Berrer (+530) – 2/7/10 11AM EST

Marin Cilic looks to take down his second title defense of 2010, win his home tournament and solidify his recently attained top 10 ranking.  Berrer is seeking his first career title. 

German Berrer has played very well in Zagreb.  He hasn’t dropped a set and has won over 40% of all points on return in every match except his semifinal match against countryman Philipp Petzschner. 

As well as Berrer has been playing; Cilic has been absolutely on fire.  And I don’t mean here in his home Country but thus far in 2010.  He defended handily in Chennai, made a great run in the AO to the semifinals, and has cruised to the final here in Zagreb.  He saw little resistance even from big serving Ivo Karlovic and Jurgen Melzer. 

Selection – Cilic Minus Games

I am trying to bring you all a smattering of matches from around the ATP 250’s and with enough time to discuss or make the plays. All three of the events, Zagreb, Santiago, and Johannesburg are featuring second round matches on 2/3 and 2/4. All of these are plays for 2/4 though the time is TBA (likely early in the morning EST). Keep tuning in for spot plays throughout 2/3 and 2/4. Thanks for reading and good luck!

South Africa Tennis Open – Johannesburg, South Africa

Somdev Devvarman (-176) vs. Thiago Alves (+150) – 2/4/10 Time TBA

Top ranked Indian player (though at 162) Somdev Devvarman must defeat Brazilian Tiago Alves (ranked 134) as both players, who are looking to break away from the Challenger circuit, battle to reach an early season quarterfinal.

Devvarman continues to march on beating seeded Xavier Malisse in the opening round in South Africa. I watched part of the match and he looked strong, serving well, coming to net some, and breaking when he needed to as he was down a break early in the first set.

Unlike many South American players Alves doesn’t flourish on clay and actually prefers the hard court. He has played in three Challenger events this year and has already made it to two semifinals. In the opening round here in South Africa Alves beat Ukrainian Oleksander Dolgopolov Jr. in three sets despite Jr. (yeah I’m not typing that name again) acing more than once per service game played.

Though many of Alves’ stats (win percentage on serve and return) are better than Devvarman I believe that the upset over Malisse is a more impressive feat. Also, Devvarman had a good run in late 2009, evidence that the kid is ready to break out in World Tour events.

Selection – Devvarman (-176)

PBZ Zagreb Indoors – Zagreb, Croatia

Benjamin Becker (-137) vs. Phillip Petzschner (+100) – 2/4/10 Time TBA

Two Germans go at it in the second round of the PBZ Zagreb Indoors. Becker, no relation to Boris Becker, is currently ranked 41near his career high of 38. Petzschner is ranked 84, far from his career high of 35. Both of these Germans play best on hard court but have similar sub-50% winning percentages on all surfaces. Petzschner has beaten Becker once, in a 2007 opening round at the US Open.

Becker has played well to open the 2010 season. He has progressed to the second round of Doha, Sydney, the AO and now Zagreb. His first round competition here in Croatia failed to capitalize on a lousy 51% first serve percentage and Becker was allowed to still win 72% of all service points.

As previously noted Petzschner has a title on indoor hard court, he earned it in 2008 in Vienna. The opening round match he played against Christophe Rochus and though he dropped the first set in tie-break rallied to win the next two 6-3, 6-1. Importantly he returned at a high rate (winning 41% of return points) despite Rochus’ modest 68% first serve percentage.

With a favorable match up for Petzschner’s return, a 1-0 head to head, and a surface advantage I will take Petzschner up to a slight fave.

Selection – Petzschner (+100)

These hours are still screwing with me.  I have to plan ahead enough to get my plays out but I end up capping more matches than intended.  That’s ok though as I went 5-2-1 for my 2/2/10 plays.  Here is a spot play for the PBZ Zagreb Indoors.

Illya Marchenko (-135) vs. Ivan Dodig (+115) – 2/3/10 5:30AM EST

Ukrainian Marchenko is at his career high ranking (102) as is his Croatian opponent Ivan Dodig (153).  Both of these Eastern European players prefer hard court and are looking to make the move into the top 100 by winning on the World Tour after decent starts on the Challenger circuit. 

So far this year Dodig has bombed out of an ATP 250 qualie in Doha and he has severely upset 28-ranked Juan Carlos Ferrero in the AO, a perplexing start.  He played a decent opening match which saw a long tie-break which literally broke down (mentally) Korolev into the second set.

Marchenko really destroyed his first round competition, Simone Bolelli at about even money.  He won 76% of his first serve, and 58% of Bolelli’s second serve to win in straights at 6-2, 6-4.

In light of Marchenko’s star short rise and consistent over performance I will take him here as a slight fave. Of course Dodig could win but he is to inconsistent.

Selection – Marchenko (-135)

Moving along to more plays for 2/2/10 (I realize I have about 7-10 plays posted for 2/2) I am going to hop between several different tournaments. There is a clay tournament going on in Chile and an indoor going on in Croatia.  It is hard to find the Orders of Play for some of these tournaments and the books are sometimes slow posting the lines.  As I have said in other blogs I will try to find value plays when dealing with large faves.  Check the comments for updated plays from me (i.e. if I am waiting for a handicap or total).

PBZ Zagreb Indoors - Zagreb, Croatia

Christophe Rochus (+165) vs. Phillipp Petzschner (-225) – 2/2/10 Approx 6:45AM EST

Both of these guys are ranked in the Mid-80s, the Belgian Rochus at 87, and German Petzschner at 84.   They have met once, in 2008 on clay and Rochus won in straight sets.  Rochus likes clay, though he has an equally bad record on all surfaces, winning just 36% of all matches played.  Petzschner considers hard court to be his surface and wins around 40% of all matches. Notably Petzschner has a slightly positive record indoors, including a title.

Petzschner had a tough loss in the first round of the AO, taking the first two sets from higher ranked Florian Mayer and then losing the next three. 

Rochus on the other hand lost in four sets in the first round of the AO to American Donald Young.  He also lost in the first round of the qualifying tournament in the ATP 250 in Sydney. 

This is Petzschner’s surface and Rochus has not shown any giddy up yet this year.  I hesitate to lay that much juice on a guy ranked slightly below his competition and in the 80’s but he really does outclass Rochus. 

Selection – Petzschner (-225)

Movistar Open – Santiago, Chile

Lukasz Kubot (+100) vs. Horacio Zeballos (-140) – 2/2/10 Approx 11AM EST

Kubot, a Pole ranked at a career high of 61 takes on Zeballos, an Argentine ranked 10 spots lower, on the red clay of the Movistar Open.  Both of these players are really trying to break onto the ATP World Tour, though Kubot has been at it a little longer than Zeballos.

Zeballos, as many South American natives, is an adept clay court player who can also play well on hard court.  So far this year Zeballos has lost in the opening round of both the AO and an ATP 250 in Auckland, New Zealand.  In both matches he was playing 30 ranked or better talent, his second serve points won percentage was a notably low 25% and 33% respectively.  On return points Zeballos only managed to win around 25% each time.

As previously mentioned Kubot is at his career high ranking, looking to improve even more.  He advanced extremely deep into the AO (Round of 16) and the ATP 250 in Doha (Quarterfinals).  He has won 78% of service games this year and a respectable 35% of return games.  During the AO he upset 20^th ranked Mikhail Youzhny. 

The only question is if Kubot can take his impressive AO game to clay.  For even money it is difficult to fight this up and coming Pole.

Selection – Kubot (+100) 

Movistar Open – Santiago Chile

Santiago Ventura (+120) vs. Pere Riba (-140)

Two Spaniards go off against each other in the opening round match at the Movistar Open in Chile, the first clay court tournament of the season. 

Ventura lost in the third round of qualifying for the AO to Antonio Veic, who is currently playing in Croatia. In the first two rounds Ventura’s service game was in tact, he won 75% and 84% of first serve points and 60% and 68% of second serve points for those rounds.  His return points won were consistent in all rounds, but his service game broke down some to lose the third round.  Ventura holds one ATP title, on clay in 2004.  He also lost in the opening round of clay Challenger in Columbia.

Pere Riba, who is almost exclusively a clay player sits at his career high ranking of 119 and looks to step up from being a mildly accomplished Challenger player.  As he doesn’t play on the hard court he forwent the AO and attendant warm-ups and instead found his way to the quarter finals of a clay Challenger in Columbia.

The most interesting angle in this matchup is the head to head in Challengers on clay, where Riba owns a 3-1 advantage. 

Selection – Riba (-140)

Because of the odd times for many of these matches I am writing up many of them and will release any plays I write up. I am trying to combine several plays long in advance for submission to SBR’s blogging for points and Blog Roll so if you see a small write up check back because a longer one is likely to follow. Here is a shorty for the PBZ Zagreb Indoors in Croatia.

Denis Istomin (+110) vs. Lukas Lacko (-130) – 2/2/10 2^nd on Court 1 Approx 1:30PM (2/2/10 Approx 6:30AM EST)

World number 91 Denis Istomin found his way onto many handicapping radars this year during the AO where he defeat Jeremy Chardy and Michael Berrer before being eliminated by Djokovic handily in the third round. Lacko, ranked at a career high 72 met with elimination from a top 5 player much sooner in the AO draw, Nadal in the second round.

The stat breakdown shows what should be a great matchup. Both players have won exactly 50% of points played this season but Lacko has an obvious advantage winning service points where Istomin’s stats strength lies in return stats.

Lacko is at his career high ranking, and the trend is your friend here. Also, these two are well matched. Look for a tie-break or Lacko to drop a set and take the over.

Selection – Lacko (-130) and Over

The AO is over but we still have 10/11ths of the season left.  Like all sports handicapping this is a grind, a marathon and not a sprint.  I fell off blogging at the end of the AO, had some things to take care of, sorry for that.  I intend to continue posting plays for as long as I can.  If anyone is following along I am hitting 53% over all my blogged plays (including one loser that I wrote up but never posted).   This would a loss of about 4 units starting with 100 and wagering 2% of your roll for each days plays.   There are 3 250’s this week and I may jump around a little.  Good luck and thanks for reading!

South Africa Tennis Open – Johannesburg

Xavier Malisse (-200) vs. Somdev Devvarman (+165) – 2/2/10 Time TBA

Indian Somdev Devvarman, ranked a humble 162, looks to step up to the ATP World Tour level again in 2010 after a mildly successful go at it in 2009.   If he wants to make headway, he must defeat Belgian veteran second stringer Xavier Malisse, ranked 93.

Somdev, who attended UVA, bombed out in the qualifying rounds in the AO but managed to defeat his first round opponent, Rainer Schuettler, in the AO warm up tournament in Chennai. 

Xavier also bombed out in AO qualifying.  He did play in the Brisbane warm up tourney but bomber out in that qualifying tournament as well.  From the looks of the stats he only managed to win 50% of his service points and less than 40% of return points to 251 ranked Aussie Nick Lindahl.

Somdev looks to improve this year and Malisse has shown little evidence that he IS NOT in the twilight of his career.

Selection – Somdev (+165)

Jarkko Nieminen (-200) vs. Yen-Hsun Lu (+165) – 2//2/10 Time TBA

Less than 4 years ago I remember picking Fin Jarkko Nieminen along with other top players, and indeed he has fallen from a career high ranking of 13 to 132 following the AO. Taiwanese player Lu has a career high ranking of 55 and is currently sitting at 101.

So far this season Jarkko has taken all his matches to three sets, and he has served well.  Against Richard Gasquet Jarkko won 61% of all points on his serve.  Lu lost in the opening round  in Chennai only winning 49% of his service points against 82 ranked player Lukas Lacko.

Nieminen is an accomplished player who is playing well enough to take similarly ranked competition to task, Lu has not shown that he is ready to win this season.

Selection – Nieminen (-200)

Harel Levy (+115) vs. Josselin Ouanna (-155) – 2/2/10 Time TBA

Frenchman Ouanna takes on Israeli Levy in the opening round of the South Africa Tennis Open.  Levy is a veteran (age 31) who never really made it on the World Tour but who has a winning record on the Challenger circuit.  Ouanna is likewise a Challenger circuit player but is relatively untested in World Tour play, being a young(er) age of 23.

Both players didn’t beat their first round opponent in the AO qualifying tournament.  Levy progressed to the second round in the Brisbane warm-up, defeating Llorda to get there.  Ouanna warmed up by playing a Challenger tournament, where he also lost in the second round. 

Levy has done as well if not better against harder competition and is a veteran here, Ouanna doesn’t show any signs of breaking out yet.

Selection – Levy (+115)

It is already quarterfinal time down under and things are getting interesting.  There are some outsiders and several tournaments faves are going to face off against each other thus potentially eliminating a serious threat to some of the peripheral players.  Everyone in this grouping has dropped a set and looks vulnerable from some angle.  Good luck!

Andy Roddick (-160) vs. Marin Cilic (+140) – 1/25 3^rd on Rod Laver Arena – (1/25 Approx. 10PM EST)

The first quarterfinal to be played in this 2010 AO is that between top ranked American Andy Roddick and top ranked Czech player Marin Cilic.  These two have met twice, splitting those meetings that were well matched.

Cilic, who professes his best shot is his back hand has had a trying trip to the quarter finals.  He blasted Fabrice Santoro in the opening round in straight sets, then had a little trouble with Aussie Bernard Tomic when his 1^st serve was sub-50% and he had the same amount of unforced errors as he did winners (67).  Overall his weakness has been his 54% first serve and his return points won percentage of 38.  His strength has been in winning on first and second serve despite missing that first, also he is an impressive 110/163 or 67.5% when approaching the net.

Roddick, as we all know a big server, has seen a better-rounded style of play be his friend in this AO.   Until the round of 16 Roddick saw little resistance and his numbers show it.  He sailed through the first and second rounds winning 3 sets to love in each, then he dropped a set to Lopez in the third round and was taken to 5 by Gonzo in the fourth.  His first serve is working to the tune of 71% backed up by an whopping 80% win rate of these points and another 62.8 win percentage on his second serve.  His receiving has been similar to Cilic, around 35%.

If Cilic approaches the net consistently he could give Roddick trouble as Gonzo did.  However this is not Cilic’s style and it is doubtful that he tries experiments with it here.  Roddick seems to be firing on all cylinders when on serve and should get it done here tonight.  I also like the total of 43 because it allows for 3 6-4 sets (Cilic to take one at 6-4) and a tie-break. 

Selection – Roddick (-160) and Over 42 (-125)

Andy Murray (-121) vs. Rafael Nadal (+107) – 1/25 7:30PM on Rod Laver Arena (1/26 3:30 EST)

This match-up is simply intriguing.  Go fetch Britain and World number 4 Andy Murray must pass through defending AO Champion Spaniard and former World number 1 Rafael Nadal.  These two have met 9 times in ATP World Tour matches with Nadal taking 7 of those meetings.

A lot of emphasis has been put on Nadal’s fitness finishing ’09 and into ’10.  No one contests that his break neck style of play will eventually sink his ship, I for one foresee a double knee replacement in his future sometime.  Indeed due to injury Nadal reported that he “believie[d] I’ll arrive a bit less prepared than for the start of last season.” (http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/tennis/3200788/Nadal-ready-for-2010-season).  The question is, how does he look in the AO thus far this year. 

Andy Murray is playing his game great.  As usual he is getting the ball in play and waiting for his opponent to make mistakes.  His 1^st serve percentage is terrible (55.8%) but he backs that up with a higher (80%).  Also he is winning 47.9% of all receiving points.

The quality of game both of these guys brings warrants a shot at the over whatever it is.  I also feel that this is a coin flip so I will take anyone at + money.

Selection – Over 41 (-110) and Nadal (+107)