1/8/2012 7:02:16 PM by Boner_18
Pre-AO Action Down Under (Plus A Kiwi or Two)
1/9/12
Two more AO warm up tournaments enter the main draw today and again we see several players in action for the first time in the 2012 season. Keeping in mind that there are several novel factors at work in the beginning tournaments, we should pick carefully.
Sydney
Florian Mayer (-145) v. Giles Muller (+125)
Middle aged (in tennis years) German Florian Mayer really had a career year last year making a career high ranking within the top 20 (18) and winning his first title at Bucharest, at age 28. Equally aged and from Luxembourg, Giles Muller also made a career high ranking at 42. Some might say that Mayer is a clay player, and to be sure it is his strongest surface. He won his first title on clay and unlike his ATP hard court record he has a winning record on Clay. Muller by contrast, is slightly more adept on hard court. However, if you look at the record of Mayer’s season one will notice that he was on a trajectory of winning despite the surface. Following Mayer’s win on Clay in mid-September, he proceeded to perform soundly on hard court winning 5 matches against players in the top 5 (one retirement) including a straight set rout of World #2 Rafael Nadal. In this match I want to stick with trend.
Florian Mayer (-145) - $340 to win $234
Jarko Nieminen (-476) v. James Duckworth (+380)
Jarko never really seemed to recover over the last few seasons when he was sidelined from an injury and he dropped out of the top 100 to a virtually 10-year low. Today, at age 30 he sits ranked at 77. Duckworth is a 19-year-old Aussie up and comer who has barely even stopped to accumulate experience at the Challenger level. Like many Futures players he won many of his matches (and titles) on clay but he is not alien to winning on hard court. In Brisbane, Duckworth soundly beat Frenchman, Nicolas Mahut in the first round and didn’t completely roll over to his second round opponent, #2 seed Giles Simon. Duckworth has a strong service game and he is at home here in Australia against a traveling opponent. For this price, I’ll take a shot at the young Aussie.
Duckworth (+380) - $59 to win $224
Auckland
Thomaz Bellucci (-278) v. Rui Machado (+235)
Both of these players clearly do their best work on clay. Both of them have numerous Challenger titles on dirt and Bellucci has two at the World Tour level. Indeed, Bellucci is an impressive 61.2% on the surface at the highest level of the pros. However, this tournament is not on clay so you might ask how we can determine how two players will fare on a surface they don’t excel on? Well, the one deciding stat is that Bellucci is 27/46 on hard court for a win percentage of 37% while Machado is a paltry 2/12, a win percentage of 14.3%. Between being the better of the two on this surface AND their preferred surface this should be a quick win for the Brazilian.
Bellucci (-278) - $687 to win $247
1/2/2012 6:47:21 PM by Boner_18
And So It Begins
1/3/12
As many people know, early season tennis betting can be dangerous. Off season work (or lack thereof) can really change a players performance, injuries both known and unknown can recover or worsen, and most obvious some players may not give 100% using lesser tournaments add "warm ups" to the Australian Open. However, there are opportunities... But tread lightly.
Brisbane
Philipp Petzschner (+155) v. Jurgen Melzer (-175)
I was surprised to learn that Jurgen Melzer is 30 years old. He has had a satisfying career amassing nearly 7mm in earnings with 3 total titles. Contrast that with 27 year-old Petzschner who had earned about half as much (2.8mm) with one title win. The two share a very similar W-L record from last year. In style of play Petzschner holds a stronger serve while Melzer sports better return stats. The weight that tips the scale for me is the head to head record, 2-0 in favor of Petzy. Lump in the fact that Melzer should be holding something back in advance of the AO and I think you gotta take the German.
Petzschner (+155) - $280 to win $434
Chennai
Sam Querrey (-266) v. Victor Hanescu (+231)
In my opening article I noted that I interested in watching Querrey potentially rebound from an injurious season in 2011. His first challenge comes against an aging Hanescu, like Querrey ranked 90+ to start 2012. The two share remarkably similar stats from last year, both on serve and return. How do I know Querrey us back on the up and up? Simply put, I don't. I'm completely taking a shot here. Querrey is young, has had sufficient time to rehab his elbow and even at 75% he wins this match. He has 6 total titles at age 24 compared to Hanescu's 1 in the twilight of his career. Take the big American at perhaps what will be the best price he will get all season.. If he is healthy.
Querrey (-266) - $1290 to win $460
|
|
|